Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Retail Trade Employment Growth
Across Maryland Counties
Retail Trade
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Retail Trade
Employment Growth
Maryland:
2010-2022 = 0.42%
2022 = 2.33%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of retail trade employment growth across all of Maryland's 24 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Maryland Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the retail trade employment growth of Maryland's 24 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Retail Trade
Employment Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Retail Trade
Employment Growth
Maryland:
2010-2022 = 0.42%
2022 = 2.33%
This figure displays the 24 counties of Maryland as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual retail trade employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the retail trade employment growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term retail trade employment growth exceeded the statewide average of 0.42%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 0.42% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual retail trade employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (0.42%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 12 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 9 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 13 counties whose most recent (2022) retail trade employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (2.33%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 8 counties whose retail trade employment growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 24 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 0.42% over 2010-2022 and 2.33% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual retail trade employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (0.42%) and near-term (2.33%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual retail trade employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (0.42%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Maryland average (2.33%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual retail trade employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (0.42%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (2.33%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual retail trade employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (0.42%) and near-term (2.33%).
   
 
Summary of Maryland's 24 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(2.33%)
Above
(2.33%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(0.42%)
4
8
12
Below
(0.42%)
4
5
9
 
8
13
21
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Maryland:
2010-2022 = 0.42%
2022 = 2.33%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Maryland counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Maryland's average annual retail trade employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 0.42%) as well as near-term (2022 = 2.33%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual retail trade employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Maryland's 24 counties, 8 (33%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
Maryland:
2010-2022 = 0.42%
2022 = 2.33%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 4 Maryland counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual retail trade employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = 0.42%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = 2.33%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual retail trade employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Observe that 4 (17%) of Maryland's 24 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Maryland:
2010-2022 = 0.42%
2022 = 2.33%
This figure shows the distribution of the 5 Maryland counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual retail trade employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = 0.42%), while they outpaced Maryland's average near-term (2022 = 2.33%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual retail trade employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Maryland's 24 counties, 21% (5) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Maryland:
2010-2022 = 0.42%
2022 = 2.33%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 4 Maryland counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual retail trade employment growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 0.42%) as well as near-term (2022 = 2.33%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual retail trade employment growth rate over 2010-2022.
17% of Maryland's counties, 4 of 24, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Maryland
Retail Trade Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
4
1.31
 
8
2.73
4,706
 
1
2.55
 
4
4.06
2,127
 
2
2.35
 
3
4.50
6,273
 
5
0.84
 
16
2.33
1,534
 
6
0.79
 
7
3.24
20,526
 
10
0.50
 
11
2.63
49,261
 
7
0.64
 
6
3.27
2,905
 
12
0.44
 
5
3.29
3,295
Slipping Counties
 
9
0.57
 
18
2.16
39,180
 
8
0.64
 
19
2.16
11,174
 
3
1.35
 
24
-0.37
6,750
 
11
0.50
 
23
1.56
4,767
Gaining Counties
 
15
0.37
 
13
2.42
4,738
 
20
-0.15
 
12
2.47
54,252
 
14
0.40
 
9
2.71
10,537
 
18
0.14
 
15
2.35
2,219
 
21
-0.36
 
10
2.65
19,009
Lagging Counties
 
13
0.42
 
22
1.59
15,763
 
16
0.18
 
21
1.69
52,622
 
19
-0.10
 
17
2.20
12,077
 
17
0.16
 
20
1.99
7,432
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
14
2.37
18,389
 
U
U
 
1
5.07
1,203
 
U
U
 
2
4.66
831
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.42
 
2.33
351,570
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.72
 
2.22
19,510,300
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1500N_510700_LSGL
 
   
Copyright © 2023. Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP). All Rights Reserved.

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