Caroline County vs. Maryland Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Caroline County: 2022 Population = 33,433 2022 Percent of State = 0.54% Maryland: 2022 Population = 6,164,660 2022 Percent of U.S. = 1.85% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Caroline County with comparisons to Maryland and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Caroline County vs. Maryland's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 tracks Caroline County's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Caroline County's population rose from 19,797 in 1969 to 33,433 in 2022, for a net gain of 13,636, or 68.88%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 traces Maryland's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Maryland's population rose from 3,868,000 in 1969 to 6,164,660 in 2022, for a net gain of 2,296,660, or 59.38%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 shows Caroline County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Maryland, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Caroline County's overall population growth was 68.88% over 1969-2022 outpaced Maryland's increase of 59.38%, and topped the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the Maryland Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of contrasting the population growth of Caroline County is to compare its individual percentage contributions to Maryland's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Maryland's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, Caroline County's population comprised 0.51% of Maryland's population, while in 2022 it totaled 0.54% thereby yielding a +0.03% share-shift.
Caroline County Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 highlights the short-run pattern of Caroline County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Caroline County's population grew at an annual rate of 1.00% over 1970-2022. The county recorded its highest growth in 1971 (3.07%) and posted its lowest growth in 2012 (-0.82%). In 2022, Caroline County's population grew by 0.06% Caroline County Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again illustrates the annual percent change in Caroline County's population since 1970, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Caroline County's annual population growth rate averaged 1.58%. It averaged 1.43% throughout the 1980s, 1.06% throughout the 1990s, 1.10% during the 2000s, 0.10% throughout the 2010s, 0.09% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Caroline County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Maryland and the nation. As the chart reveals, Caroline County's average annual population growth outpaced Maryland's average during the 1970s (1.58% vs. 0.88%), recorded above Maryland's average during the 1980s (1.43% vs. 1.14%), recorded under Maryland's average during the 1990s (1.06% vs. 1.06%), surpassed Maryland's average throughout the 2000s (1.10% vs. 0.87%), recorded under Maryland's average throughout the 2010s (0.10% vs. 0.73%), and outgained Maryland's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (0.09% vs. 0.01%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Caroline County led the nation over the 1970s (1.58% vs. 1.10%), outgained the nation over the 1980s (1.43% vs. 0.95%), fell below the nation during the 1990s (1.06% vs. 1.23%), registered above the nation over the 2000s (1.10% vs. 0.95%), posted below the nation over the 2010s (0.10% vs. 0.74%), and recorded underneath the nation over 2020-2022 (0.09% vs. 0.31%).
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