Baltimore City vs. Maryland Comparative Trends Analysis: Average Earnings Per Job Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Baltimore City: 2022 Avg. Earnings = $89,296 2022 Percent of State = 120.55% Maryland: 2022 Avg. Earnings = $74,076 The United States economy has generated an impressive number of jobs since the 1970s. The contrast between the nation's vigorous employment growth and the modest performance of other major industrial countries is striking. Despite this rosy track record, the real (inflation adjusted) wages and salaries of many workers have stagnated or slipped in recent years. This development has provoked concerns about the quality of new jobs. Structural shifts in the composition of employment--from high-wage goods-producing to low-wage services-related sectors--is the culprit most often cited for the deteriorating quality of jobs. Regions vary greatly in the make-up of their labor force, in their industry composition of employment, and their economic experience. Reviewing and examining recent developments in average earnings per job in Baltimore City with comparisons to Maryland and the nation is an important first step in understanding the economic forces at play in Baltimore City. Discussion: Average Annual Earnings Per Job are computed by dividing BEA total industry earnings estimates by the BEA total full- and part-time jobs estimates. No convenient or adequate means exist at the county or regional level for converting the job estimates to a full-time equivalent measure. So, interpret the average earnings per job estimates with caution in consideration of the following issues: Average earnings per job within industries involving more part-time work is lower than industries involving more full-time work, although there could be little difference in the underlying wage of full-time workers. Such differences could also prevail between counties and regions. An increase in the proportion of part-time jobs over time may erode average earnings per job estimates, although full-time earnings per worker may have remained unchanged. As with per capita income, average earnings per job may be subject to extreme short-run variation, especially in smaller counties. Major construction projects relating to building dams, nuclear power plants, and private plant construction projects have caused extreme fluctuations in many smaller counties. Such changes typify both small and large agriculture-dependent counties owing to the extreme annual variations in farm incomes. Also, Since average earnings per job are just a simple average, it does not account for variations in the distribution of earnings among high- vs. low-wage jobs. Baltimore City Average Earnings Per Job, 1970-2022 Current vs. Constant Dollars Figure 1. Figure 1 depicts Baltimore City's annual average earnings per job over 1970-2022 in current and constant (2017) dollars. Constant dollar measurements remove the effects of inflation. They allow for comparison of changes in the real purchasing power of Baltimore City over time. When measured in current dollars, Baltimore City's average earnings per job increased 1,062.13%, from $7,684 in 1970 to $89,296 in 2022. When measured in constant 2017 dollars to adjust for inflation, it advanced 97.95%, from $38,874 in 1970 to $76,951 in 2022. Real Average Earnings Per Job, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 tracks Baltimore City's and Maryland's annual real average earnings per job for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate real average earnings per job patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Baltimore City's real average earnings per job rose from $37,966 in 1969 to $76,951 in 2022, for a net gain of $38,985, or 102.68%. In comparison, Maryland's real average earnings per job increased from $38,649 in 1969 to $63,835 in 2022, for a net advance of $25,185, or 65.16%. Real Average Earnings Per Job Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 shows Baltimore City's real average earnings per job growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Maryland, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's real average earnings per job in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the real average earnings per jobs in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in real average earnings per job growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Baltimore City's overall real average earnings per job growth was 102.68% over 1969-2022 outpaced Maryland's increase of 65.16%, and topped the United States' increase of 62.26%. Average Earnings Per Job as a Percent of the U.S. Average: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Figure 4 displays the trends for average earnings per job relative to the national average by tracing Baltimore City and Maryland average earnings per job as a percent of the national average over 1969-2022. In 1969, Baltimore City's average earnings per job amounted to 99.86% of the national average; in 2022, it approximated 124.74%. Similarly, in 1969, Maryland's average earnings per job totaled 101.66% of the national average; in 2022, it consisted of 103.48%. Baltimore City Real Average Earnings Per Job: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 shows the short-run pattern of Baltimore City's real average earnings per job growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Baltimore City's real average earnings per job grew at an annual rate of 1.36% over 1970-2022. The independent city recorded its highest growth in 1998 (4.94%) and recorded its lowest growth in 1980 (-2.47%). In 2022, Baltimore City's real average earnings per job declined by -1.03% Baltimore City Real Average Earnings Per Job: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some independent cities have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again shows the annual percent change in Baltimore City's real average earnings per job since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Baltimore City's annual real average earnings per job growth rate averaged 1.10%. It averaged 1.63% in the 1980s, 2.39% throughout the 1990s, 1.19% throughout the 2000s, 0.83% during the 2010s, 0.19% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Real Average Earnings Per Job Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Baltimore City noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Maryland and the nation. As the chart reveals, Baltimore City's average annual real average earnings per job growth outpaced Maryland's average throughout the 1970s (1.10% vs. 0.68%), outpaced Maryland's average throughout the 1980s (1.63% vs. 0.97%), surpassed Maryland's average during the 1990s (2.39% vs. 1.79%), fell below Maryland's average throughout the 2000s (1.19% vs. 1.59%), topped Maryland's average in the 2010s (0.83% vs. 0.47%), and outperformed Maryland's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (0.19% vs. -1.21%). Finally, relative to nationwide real average earnings per job growth trends, Baltimore City topped the nation over the 1970s (1.10% vs. 0.89%), exceeded the nation over the 1980s (1.63% vs. 0.71%), led the nation during the 1990s (2.39% vs. 1.68%), surpassed the nation during the 2000s (1.19% vs. 0.72%), fell below the nation during the 2010s (0.83% vs. 1.01%), and recorded above the nation over 2020-2022 (0.19% vs. -0.24%).
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